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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.